Every Florida campground operator I’ve talked to this spring has the same look on their face: that particular mix of concern and forced optimism that means they’re watching reservation numbers and hoping something changes before November. Something did change. It just didn’t change in their favor.

Canadian snowbirds, the backbone of winter RV park revenue from Sarasota to Scottsdale, are quietly pulling out. Not all of them, not permanently, but enough that the shift is registering in real numbers. If you’re an American full-timer who’s been priced out of the good Gulf Coast spots or locked out of the Apache Junction resorts every December, pay attention. This is your window.

The Numbers Behind the Empty Sites

Metric2024-25 Season2025-26 SeasonChange
Canadian snowbirds planning U.S. winter (Snowbird Advisor)~85%70%-15 percentage points
Canadian Snowbird Association members planning U.S. travelPre-pandemic baseline-27%-27% vs. pre-pandemic
Canadian visitor growth, Florida Q1 2025Baseline-17% YoYDown 17%
Canadian visitor growth, Florida Q2 2025Baseline-20% YoYDown 20%

The Snowbird Advisor survey of more than 4,000 Canadians, reported by CBC News in November 2025, found only 70% planned to winter in the U.S. in 2025-26. That’s nearly 15 percentage points lower than the prior year. The Canadian Snowbird Association put it even more starkly: a 27% decrease in members planning U.S. travel compared to pre-pandemic figures.

Florida felt it fast. Visit Florida’s own statistics show Canadian visitor growth down roughly 17% in Q1 2025 and 20% in Q2 2025, year-over-year. Those aren’t rounding errors. That’s a structural change in behavior, and it was already baked in before the 2025-26 winter season even started. Heading into winter 2026-27 planning season, there’s no sign of a rebound.

The RV industry noticed too. Bish’s RV flagged “Canadian snowbirds shifting away from the U.S.” as one of the defining market trends shaping 2026, which tells you this isn’t just campground owners venting. It’s changing the economics of the whole sector.

What’s Actually Driving This

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Three things are stacking on each other, and they’re not going away soon.

First, the registration requirement. An executive order signed in early 2025 requires all foreign nationals staying in the U.S. longer than 30 days to register with the government. The penalties for non-compliance aren’t a slap on the wrist: we’re talking fines and potential jail time. For a Canadian retiree who just wants to park their fifth wheel in Yuma for four months and play pickleball, the idea of navigating a federal registration requirement, and the legal exposure that comes with screwing it up, is a genuine deterrent. Many of them are simply deciding the math doesn’t work anymore.

Second, the trade war. The political friction between Ottawa and Washington has made the whole cross-border experience feel less welcoming, and Canadians are responding the way people do when they feel unwelcome: they’re finding other options. Portugal, Mexico, and Panama are seeing increased Canadian interest. Some are staying home. Either way, they’re not renewing their Thousand Trails memberships.

Third, the Canadian Snowbird Visa Act. This legislation would extend the allowable U.S. stay from 182 days to 240 days, which would actually make the snowbird lifestyle more viable for many Canadians who currently have to leave just when winter is at its worst back home. It’s been reintroduced six times, most recently in April 2025, and it’s still going nowhere. The TheTravel reported in February 2026 that the proposal remained stalled in legislative limbo, with no clear path forward. So the one policy change that might reverse this trend isn’t coming anytime soon.

What This Means for American Full-Timers

I’ve been doing this eight years. The parks that used to be near-impossible to book by August, Bentley Village in Nokomis, Ringling area resorts, the big age-55-plus communities around Mesa and Chandler, those are showing availability. Not fire-sale availability, not yet. But the “sold out by Labor Day” reality that defined the last several winters is softening.

If you’ve wanted to try a structured 55-plus resort, this is the year to make calls instead of waiting to get on waiting lists. The calculus has shifted from “who do I know to get a spot” to “what’s your monthly rate.” Park owners who were turning people away two years ago are now actively courting American full-timers. Some are quietly offering incentives they wouldn’t have touched in 2023.

The less obvious opportunity is negotiating longer stays at better rates. When occupancy drops, seasonal rates tend to follow. It won’t be announced. You have to call, ask about three-month rates, and be willing to commit early. That’s how it works.

What Park Owners Are Actually Doing

Some parks are adjusting marketing, targeting American retirees more aggressively through RV club partnerships and Facebook groups that skew toward domestic full-timers. A few Florida Gulf Coast parks have already started cutting their monthly rates to compete. Others are still in denial, betting the Canadian situation resolves itself.

It won’t resolve quickly. The registration requirement isn’t being walked back. The visa act isn’t passing. The political temperature between the two countries doesn’t have a clear cooling mechanism. Park owners who are waiting for 2024 conditions to return are going to be waiting a long time, which is actually useful information if you’re negotiating a seasonal rate right now.

The Arizona market may feel this more acutely than Florida. Canadian snowbirds are disproportionately concentrated in the East Valley communities around the Phoenix metro, and Arizona doesn’t have the domestic winter-visitor volume that Florida does. Parks in Mesa and Apache Junction that ran at 95% capacity through March are now doing occupancy math they haven’t had to do in years.

What Not to Assume

Don’t assume prices are collapsing. The desirable parks with good infrastructure, reliable power, and actual amenities are still going to fill. There’s enough American demand to absorb some of the Canadian pullback, especially in Florida where domestic snowbirds from the Midwest and Northeast have always been a large share of the market.

Also don’t assume the registration situation will trap Canadian friends or neighbors who do come down. The registration process exists; it’s navigable. The issue is that many Canadians, especially older retirees who’ve been doing this for decades, don’t want the hassle or the legal exposure. The deterrent effect is more powerful than the actual compliance burden. That distinction matters if you’re talking to Canadian friends trying to decide.

What’s actually happening is a rebalancing. The dominant assumption in the snowbird RV park market for thirty years, that Canadian demand would always be there, always grow, always fill the premium sites by November, is being tested. The American full-timer who moves fast this summer is the one who benefits from the recalibration.

Winter 2026-27 is shaping up to be the most accessible in years for domestic full-timers who want a real seasonal site in Florida or Arizona. That window probably doesn’t stay open forever. Make your calls now.

Sources

Photo: Stephen Pierce via Pexels